I find this interesting, but I don't agree with your assessment of him as a person. His appearances on Theo Von and Rogan show him to be an EXTREMELY likable guy. Not in the Obama schmooze way, but as a guy you could shoot the shit with over nachos. Trump saw the everyman in this guy, and how he embodies the American success story 100%. I agree Trump is looking to make Vance the torchbearer of the MAGA movement post-Trump, but i wouldn't resign Vance to the back of the chorus line.
Excellent article. I'd like to see it in the weekend Wall Street Journal "Review" section. I didn't know much about Van Buren.
I'm not sure how much of this was conscious for Trump, but you've nailed it. Vance is the obvious heir apparent. He is much more intellectual than Trump, as he showed in his debate and interviews.
Excellent piece! This should be an op-ed for a major newspaper! Seriously!! Go submit this.
The history lessons are valuable and insightful. The hypothesis on Vance is unique and noteworthy. Many Republicans are adrift with what to make of Trump and what happens when he is out of the picture. I favor the independent cause myself, but watching the Republican party redefine itself in real time is fascinating and has enormous consequences for our county.
An intriguing hypothesis. Vance as a political entrepreneur, a start-up guy, or one willing to buy into a failing business, believing that he can make it profitable. I don’t know the Van Buren story well enough to judge the usefulness of the analogy, but on its face, it seems to work. I do agree that Vance could be a force for years to come. He has Peter Thiel’s money behind him & that of other tech bros as well, I suspect. And, Vance is willing to switch dance partners as he sees new opportunities.
If I may ask a question that seems silly, how did you develop as much knowledge of politics and US history as you have? Is it just a matter of reading a lot over time?
Mostly lots of time reading history in the university library! When I was working on my book on political realignments I ended up reading a lot of American political history. Although I'm also just curious by nature and like to understand systems from the top down. If you want to understand what's happening in politics and the world, it helps to know how things developed into the way they are. So I've always paid attention to history because I find it useful to understanding what's happening around me now.
It's a fantastic book. I read it a few years back when Frank was on a podcast (I'm not mentioning its name b/c it's become really, REALLY shitty) BUT...
This guy's book puts everything about the current US political morass into a historical perspective. Yeah, we've been here before; the rhymes are strong.
And DiStefano teases out both the similarities and the differences. Not gonna lie, I'm going to re-read it. As powerful and explicatory work as The Power Broker. Not kidding.
I somehow stumbled on this stack. This article is golden. How refreshing to read such an unexpected but true layer of perspective based on honest insight and historical fact. I agree with a former poster who suggests this should be published as an op-ed for a wider audience. I’m off to read further on the political life of Martin Van Buren. Thank you Frank.
Vance believes that if a man rapes his daughter and she becomes pregnant due to the rape she must bear his grandchild. Her half brother or half sister? This is clearly disqualifying for a president.
Is there an actual quote of this? I’ve heard this but cannot find direct evidence of this. No question he is pro-life but in my world pro-life means necessary but rare and not the maximalist Democrat version of setting up abortion and vasectomy services at the DNC. Yes, that was real. I checked several sources because I couldn’t believe it. So what you’re suggesting is that Vance, who has a daughter, would force her to carry a child to term if she was raped and Usha, an accomplished lawyer who has clerked for Supreme Court Justices would stand by that? I find this a completely incredible conclusion to draw. The rhetoric has been so insanely hyperbolic during this ejection that we all need to check our assumptions about a lot of things. Perhaps there is a kernel of truth to this but I have yet to find any real evidence for it.
McExpat: Yes he was quoted historically as saying that two wrongs don’t make a right and that rape and incest were not reasons to allow an abortion. He may have softened his position to make it closer to Trump’s and that’s a good thing.
How would you accomplish this over the course of her entire life?
Let’s say you manage to do this - what then of those girls, teens & women who are raped - by anyone - do they have to bear their rapist’s child because they didn’t have a person glued to their side who prevented the rape?
I think the odds of getting raped if you behave properly are very low. It’s not even close to my top worry in life.
If I were worried about rape I would focus a lot more on preventing rape via changes to the criminal justice system or other indirect causes (immigration, economics, etc).
For instance, I would care more about say Muslim rape gangs if I were a European then whether or not my daughter could get an abortion after being raped.
Similarly I wouldn’t want to support a party that wants to “defund the police” or generally takes an anti-police attitude if I were worried about rape.
I suppose I would support abortion in the case of rape, but the idea that this would be “disqualifying” of a political candidate is absurd.
Would I support a candidate that made it more likely for my daughter to be raped if they also supported her right to abort the result of the rape?
Would I support a candidate that wanted to start a war,crash the economy, etc because as an offsetting positive they would allow my raped daughter to get an abortion?
It’s very difficult for me to get in the mindset of someone so obsessed with abortion. It seems a mental illness. In my lifetime the GOP has never been as pro-choice as it is this election cycle and yet this is the issue one is going to decide an election on?
Excellent retort….I agree about the abortion obsession. My God is there any other place in the mind of the left to begin to solve the imminent critical issues before this nation than to start with abortion? You illustrate the hypocrisy of the disordered priorities they offer in this election. They may realize soon that a many voters are as logical and serious as you are.
Nice theory. Over complicated but feasible. I was fully confident in Venice until his Rogan interview. “I wanna party with Hunter Biden” is a scary thing to say, even as a joke. Then there was Vance’s cribbing Tucker Carlson’s anecdote about the lying child as his own, then not even remembering it correctly. My conclusion? Vance underneath is a common politician.
Interesting idea, but who are these people who selected JD Vance to fill this role? From what I've seen, I think Donald Trump selected him, more on impulse than anything else.
I find this interesting, but I don't agree with your assessment of him as a person. His appearances on Theo Von and Rogan show him to be an EXTREMELY likable guy. Not in the Obama schmooze way, but as a guy you could shoot the shit with over nachos. Trump saw the everyman in this guy, and how he embodies the American success story 100%. I agree Trump is looking to make Vance the torchbearer of the MAGA movement post-Trump, but i wouldn't resign Vance to the back of the chorus line.
Excellent article. I'd like to see it in the weekend Wall Street Journal "Review" section. I didn't know much about Van Buren.
I'm not sure how much of this was conscious for Trump, but you've nailed it. Vance is the obvious heir apparent. He is much more intellectual than Trump, as he showed in his debate and interviews.
Excellent piece! This should be an op-ed for a major newspaper! Seriously!! Go submit this.
The history lessons are valuable and insightful. The hypothesis on Vance is unique and noteworthy. Many Republicans are adrift with what to make of Trump and what happens when he is out of the picture. I favor the independent cause myself, but watching the Republican party redefine itself in real time is fascinating and has enormous consequences for our county.
Good work!
Thanks Joe! I really appreciate it.
An intriguing hypothesis. Vance as a political entrepreneur, a start-up guy, or one willing to buy into a failing business, believing that he can make it profitable. I don’t know the Van Buren story well enough to judge the usefulness of the analogy, but on its face, it seems to work. I do agree that Vance could be a force for years to come. He has Peter Thiel’s money behind him & that of other tech bros as well, I suspect. And, Vance is willing to switch dance partners as he sees new opportunities.
Very smart piece, Frank!
If I may ask a question that seems silly, how did you develop as much knowledge of politics and US history as you have? Is it just a matter of reading a lot over time?
Mostly lots of time reading history in the university library! When I was working on my book on political realignments I ended up reading a lot of American political history. Although I'm also just curious by nature and like to understand systems from the top down. If you want to understand what's happening in politics and the world, it helps to know how things developed into the way they are. So I've always paid attention to history because I find it useful to understanding what's happening around me now.
I thought it was an excellent book.
Here is the link if you’re interested.
https://www.amazon.com/Next-Realignment-Americas-Parties-Crumbling/dp/1633885089
It's a fantastic book. I read it a few years back when Frank was on a podcast (I'm not mentioning its name b/c it's become really, REALLY shitty) BUT...
This guy's book puts everything about the current US political morass into a historical perspective. Yeah, we've been here before; the rhymes are strong.
And DiStefano teases out both the similarities and the differences. Not gonna lie, I'm going to re-read it. As powerful and explicatory work as The Power Broker. Not kidding.
Thanks. Always profit from reading your newsletters.
I somehow stumbled on this stack. This article is golden. How refreshing to read such an unexpected but true layer of perspective based on honest insight and historical fact. I agree with a former poster who suggests this should be published as an op-ed for a wider audience. I’m off to read further on the political life of Martin Van Buren. Thank you Frank.
I think this is exactly right. Well considered and argued.
Fantastic job, Frank. It's been worth the wait. I've made about 4 or more posts on X asking "Where's DiStefano?" lol
Well, here ya are.
A PERFECT assessment of Vance, Trump and MAGA that I've ever read. Out-freaking-standing job, man.
Thanks, I really appreciate it!
Vance believes that if a man rapes his daughter and she becomes pregnant due to the rape she must bear his grandchild. Her half brother or half sister? This is clearly disqualifying for a president.
Is there an actual quote of this? I’ve heard this but cannot find direct evidence of this. No question he is pro-life but in my world pro-life means necessary but rare and not the maximalist Democrat version of setting up abortion and vasectomy services at the DNC. Yes, that was real. I checked several sources because I couldn’t believe it. So what you’re suggesting is that Vance, who has a daughter, would force her to carry a child to term if she was raped and Usha, an accomplished lawyer who has clerked for Supreme Court Justices would stand by that? I find this a completely incredible conclusion to draw. The rhetoric has been so insanely hyperbolic during this ejection that we all need to check our assumptions about a lot of things. Perhaps there is a kernel of truth to this but I have yet to find any real evidence for it.
McExpat: Yes he was quoted historically as saying that two wrongs don’t make a right and that rape and incest were not reasons to allow an abortion. He may have softened his position to make it closer to Trump’s and that’s a good thing.
I’ll take your word for it but I remain unconvinced about direction of travel for policy.
I would focus on making sure my daughter wasn’t raped in the first place.
How would you accomplish this over the course of her entire life?
Let’s say you manage to do this - what then of those girls, teens & women who are raped - by anyone - do they have to bear their rapist’s child because they didn’t have a person glued to their side who prevented the rape?
I think the odds of getting raped if you behave properly are very low. It’s not even close to my top worry in life.
If I were worried about rape I would focus a lot more on preventing rape via changes to the criminal justice system or other indirect causes (immigration, economics, etc).
For instance, I would care more about say Muslim rape gangs if I were a European then whether or not my daughter could get an abortion after being raped.
Similarly I wouldn’t want to support a party that wants to “defund the police” or generally takes an anti-police attitude if I were worried about rape.
I suppose I would support abortion in the case of rape, but the idea that this would be “disqualifying” of a political candidate is absurd.
Would I support a candidate that made it more likely for my daughter to be raped if they also supported her right to abort the result of the rape?
Would I support a candidate that wanted to start a war,crash the economy, etc because as an offsetting positive they would allow my raped daughter to get an abortion?
It’s very difficult for me to get in the mindset of someone so obsessed with abortion. It seems a mental illness. In my lifetime the GOP has never been as pro-choice as it is this election cycle and yet this is the issue one is going to decide an election on?
Excellent retort….I agree about the abortion obsession. My God is there any other place in the mind of the left to begin to solve the imminent critical issues before this nation than to start with abortion? You illustrate the hypocrisy of the disordered priorities they offer in this election. They may realize soon that a many voters are as logical and serious as you are.
Good for you. 😎
Nice theory. Over complicated but feasible. I was fully confident in Venice until his Rogan interview. “I wanna party with Hunter Biden” is a scary thing to say, even as a joke. Then there was Vance’s cribbing Tucker Carlson’s anecdote about the lying child as his own, then not even remembering it correctly. My conclusion? Vance underneath is a common politician.
Interesting idea, but who are these people who selected JD Vance to fill this role? From what I've seen, I think Donald Trump selected him, more on impulse than anything else.
Don Trump junior was the driving force I think
I hope you’re right!