Five Reflections on the First Month of the Second Trump Presidency, in Light of the Realignment

Here are the five most surprising developments, and what I think they mean for the current realignment and future of America.

We’re about a month into the second Trump administration. It’s proven to be entirely different from the first.

Here are the five most surprising developments from the new administration’s first month, and what I think they mean for the current realignment and America.

I. Trump and His Brand of Republican Politics is Now Normal.

The biggest surprise of the second Trump administration is that Trump, and his new version of the Republican Party, is now normal.

The first Trump administration was widely considered a disruptive aberration. Of course it was, since it was a rebellion against both parties and the existing structure of American politics. The first Trump administration was on a mission to tear it all down. Both party establishments viewed Trump as far outside the Overton Window and beyond the pale of the acceptable. America’s institutions sent a consistent message that Trump’s brand of politics was an extreme and dangerous assault by one crazy man on America. Ordinary Americans, unsettled by the sudden collapse of the only system they had known, were uneasy.

That’s over. This is now just what Republican politics is.

A lot has changed. During the first Trump administration, Trump wasn’t an experienced politician. He governed by instinct and impulse. Trump is no longer just a real estate mogul and reality star trying his hand at politics. He’s an experienced politician and former president with nearly a decade in the game. During his first administration, dueling factions pushed and pulled in different directions united only around a common mission to tear the old world down. The remnant of the old Republican establishment in the White House saw themselves as there to stop him going too far. This new administration is organized. It’s pulling in the same direction around a well-coordinated plan. It’s backed by a unified party and staffed by young staff eager to push forward an agenda.

Most important, there’s no longer much of the old world left to destroy. This is a united group intent on enacting an agenda and building.

Another thing is different—Democrats also are no longer viewed as normal. Four years ago, Democrats campaigned that they were the normal party. They put forward an old warhorse, Joe Biden, who promised a White House that would restore the status quo. An exhausted America agreed, but then the Democrats didn’t govern normal either. Instead of a boring administration that put America back in steady and familiar hands, the Democrats frequently pursued unpopular issues and put America in the hands of young activists on a zealous mission to transform it. Instead of acting as a firewall of stability, they also began disrupting things. In result, Democrats squandered their identity as a normal party too.

When neither party is normal, the old normal is dead. This is our new normal.

When this new administration came into office, people expected a repeat of the first Trump administration. Democrats have sought to run the same playbook as the first time, calling out Trump and Republicans as scary and extreme. It isn’t resonating this time because, over the last four years, the game changed. A majority of Americans are used to this, and there’s no back to go to. Plus, Americans no longer trust Democrats to be normal either.

II. Republicans are Now the Cool Party.

The next unexpected development is Republicans are now cool.

For as long as anyone remembers, the left was cool and the right was considered lame. Democrats were rebellious, young, and risk-taking. Republicans were scoldy church ladies, old guys in country clubs, and boring corporate suits. Cool people, like actors, singers, artists, and other popular kids, were all on the left. Now, young people are finding it’s Republicans who are rebellious, fun, and cool.

Democrats chose this.

Over the last two decades, Democrats embraced a new identity as the party of the establishment. The rich folks in country clubs and corporate suites now are Democrats. Democrats also embraced a style and agenda that was cautious, judgey, hectoring, marmish, and scoldy. Democrats are now the busybodies telling you to drive slower, be nicer to your sister, dress appropriately, and remember to say thank you. Republican are the rebels telling off authority figures and doing donuts in muscle cars in the parking lot. This is why young people, especially young men, are flocking to the Republicans.

There are political and policy reasons Democrats embraced the wine mom and middle-school English teacher aesthetic of moralism, judgementalism, feminine energy, and bureaucratic control. Other wine moms (many of whom can be found inside this new Democratic Party) love it, and even think it’s edgy and cool—while their teenage children roll their eyes. Wine moms and middle-school English teachers are not cool. Democrats chose to be the Karen Party, while Republicans have become the rebels thumbing their noses at the system.

This may seem a trivial thing. The long-term implications are actually staggering. A lot of powerful cultural figures need to be cool. While such people traditionally were on the left, I don’t think all of them found themselves there by carefully studying political philosophy. Many were there because being a Republican was lame, and thus career suicide. If this shift continues, expect a flood of cultural figures moving right: athletes, actors, musicians, artists, media, and youth. Democrats long have taken for granted the cultural power that comes with being the cool party. They’ve given that away, and will now lose one of their most powerful tools.

I don’t know how Democrats reverse this without fundamentally changing what the party now is. The implications could fundamentally reorder American culture.

III. DOGE is Historically Important.

When Elon Musk announced DOGE as an attempt to cut government waste, I didn’t think much of it. In fact, I wrote an article saying that. I stand by the key point—there isn’t enough money in these programs to move the needle on the federal budget without cutting untouchable expenses like defense, Social Security, and Medicare. However, that isn’t what DOGE is actually about.

It’s increasingly clear DOGE isn’t a budget-cutting program. It’s a program to destroy the infrastructure supporting the Democratic Party and institutional left.

Democrats are used to wielding cultural power through control of America’s moral and sense-making institutions—institutions like universities, research institutions, NGOs, and the media we’ve entrusted to discover truth and tell us what’s good and what’s bad. Taking this power for granted, Democrats then abused that trust for short-term political gains of winning elections or advancing partisan agendas. Everybody forgot these institutions depend on networks of grants and funding to survive, which ultimately trace back to government. DOGE is about unraveling those networks.

If DOGE succeeds at destroying these funding networks, it has the potential to completely rebalance government and institutional power in America. I’m talking something on the scale of the New Deal. Not only are Democrats about to lose a lot of power they took for granted (and arguably were cavalier about and misused), but these once-powerful institutions will be significantly weakened and unwound. It’s a total remaking of the intellectual and policy infrastructure of America. DOGE is a very big deal.

IV. Foreign Policy Is Important Again.

Americans think very little about foreign policy. It barely featured in the campaign. Although few Americans are paying attention, this administration’s foreign policy moves may be the most historically important thing currently going on.

There’s been a major ongoing debate over whether America should radically change its foreign policy direction in light of China’s rise. A lot of people believe it’s possible, if not likely, we’re heading into a major war sometime in the next decade. What should America do to avoid, prepare for, and if necessary win that war? Should America disengage from Europe and NATO, repair relations with Russia, or even unwind the network of tributary states that formed its twentieth-century empire?

The Trump administration’s aggressive foreign policy moves suggest Republican foreign-policy hands may be ready to stop talking and start acting. As I recently wrote, I’m not confident this is the right direction. At a minimum, before a small group unilaterally unwinds almost a century of well-tested security strategy, it deserves some serious discussion given the catastrophe of getting it wrong. That something this big is happening so quickly with so little debate is important, and a bit unsettling.

V. Woke Isn’t Dead. It’s Just Losing.

The conventional wisdom is Woke is dead. I’m not so sure. I think it’s just losing.

The Trump administration is making major moves to unwind Democratic priorities of the last decade around gender and DEI. The speed of the collapse of the Democrats’ most important agenda over the last decade is shocking. Major corporations, five minutes ago fully on board these efforts, are rapidly following suit. The consensus is this means Woke is dead.

The recent DNC elections suggest otherwise. If you’ve listened to Democratic politicians or progressive leaders, the message isn’t to abandon the agenda. They remain as committed as they ever were. The DNC elections prioritized the same rituals and agenda as before. This makes sense, because Woke was never a cynical tactical or political play. These are the issues core Democratic constituencies actually care about and want.

Democrats won’t abandon these policies because they’ve become politically unpopular, any more than 1990s era Christian Conservatives would consider abandoning pro-life policies to pick up voters. I suspect these issues might be quiet for a time, but not because they’re defeated. They’re just losing, but will be back harder in the future.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS

I often called the first Trump administration the precondition for a realignment. It was a movement to tear old systems down. The next step will be movements to build new systems up. The second Trump administration appears to be a coordinated program to build something up.

Will Republicans become the new majority party that realigns America? I’m not yet sure. I do know Democrats, who seemed triumphant and positioned to recreate politics a year ago, no longer seem well-positioned or capable of re-engineering their party to meet the present moment.

This is why I still believe a major movement is coming from outside the system. I just think it’s now increasingly likely the Republican Party survives in its present form, while the weakened Democratic establishment, unable to refocus, ultimately gets brushed aside to allow new ideas and energy to take its place.

What do you think the first month of the new administration means? Join the community in the comments.